Spun Clothing Raw Material Inflation &Nbsp; Vigilance Cotton Price Speculation

As an important strategic material of our country, it is also an important strategic material.

In the decline and rise of the pformation, in the financial crisis to the industrial situation of all kinds of judgment bias, after the low price of cotton prices "huge" rebound has stimulated the entire textile and garment industry cost rising momentum.

In this regard, Zhang Shibin, managing director of Sanyang textile (Hongkong) Co., Ltd. concluded that this is a lack of estimation of the industry's momentum.

General inflation of raw materials

Since the financial crisis, China's textile industry has suffered setbacks, resulting in insufficient demand for cotton and declining prices. This directly damages cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting and foreshadows price rebounding in mid 2009.

According to relevant data, by the end of November 2008, domestic 3 grade cotton prices had dropped to 10000 yuan / ton.

According to the data from the China Cotton Research Institute, the price of seed cotton fell by 22.2% in 2008, resulting in a huge loss of 43 billion 100 million yuan for farmers, resulting in a sharp decrease in cotton planting area and total production in 2009, and a growing contradiction between production and demand.

At that time, no one expected the revival of the textile industry in 2009, and cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting grew out of a great loss.

What is worse is that the deviation in judging the economic situation has not stopped. When the industry begins to warm up, the industry is not fully aware of the situation of warming up, so that the "injured" cotton is rapidly showing a shortage of supply. Only during the national day of 2009, cotton prices are like a galloping wild horse, irresistible, or take grade 3 cotton as an example. At that time, its price has approached 15000 yuan / ton, up 5000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, and the increase was 50%.

Large textile enterprises, such as Shandong Wei Qiao Textile Group, have publicly increased their purchase price of lint in order to attract cotton merchants' attention.

"At the very beginning, people just thought that the recovery in the end of 2009 was only in the European and American markets, and only one or two months in the warmer period."

Zhang Shibin said, "what the industry did not expect is that the recovery will continue until now, and the situation is that the cotton will not be enough for the economy to recover slightly."

At present, China's standard cotton price index has exceeded 16000 yuan per ton, close to 17000 yuan per ton.

The market price of high-grade long staple cotton is as high as 24000 yuan per ton.

The rise in cotton prices is only the beginning. When cotton is rising, not only is it driving.

According to relevant statistics, since the beginning of this year, the prices of chemical fiber, Cocoon Silk raw materials, wool raw materials and other products have also been rising. For example, the spandex in the chemical fiber products is affected by imbalance between supply and demand. The spandex price rises continuously, and the price of spandex 40D rises from 48000 yuan / ton to 55000 yuan / ton, or 14.58%.

Australian wool prices rose from 45000 yuan / ton in June last year to 80000 yuan / ton, or nearly 50%.

The price of white silk has risen from 170 thousand yuan per ton in October last year to 250 thousand yuan per ton, or more than 47%.

These prices have shown that, at the moment, since the rapid rise in the price of cotton, the "rising tide" in the textile and garment industry has almost expanded to all the raw materials and processing fields of the textile industry.

Cotton may be hyped up

Because cotton is the most basic raw material used by the textile and garment industry, it has a certain "radiation power" to every link of the industrial chain.

After nearly a year of rising prices, cotton price trend is also related to the future development of all aspects of textile and garment industry, and even the future procurement and marketing plan of a single enterprise.

Based on this, the industry has also inquired about the peak of cotton price rise.

Zhang Shibin believes that the current cotton boom will certainly continue to be listed on the new cotton market until the third quarter of this year.

"Now the situation is that in both China and the United States, the cotton planting area is decreasing, and there is not much left in the stock of cotton. Relying on existing reserves is not enough to lower the price."

Zhang Shibin said, "a more realistic situation is that the operation of enterprises at present will enlarge the demand for cotton. For example, at present, some enterprises expect cotton prices to be higher in the future and feel that buying later is not as good as buying now, which actually magnifies the demand.

Of course, there is another important factor to consider, that is, the entry of speculators will make cotton prices continue to rise.

At present, as Zhang Shibin is worried about, more and more textile and garment industry employees begin to worry that cotton will become another hot spot of speculation in the market, just like garlic in 2009.

There are a series of data and economic phenomena to support these "worries".

Such as global cotton production, inventory decline, a sharp increase in demand and so on, will provide favorable conditions for speculative capital to speculate on cotton prices, push up cotton futures prices, and then boost cotton spot prices.

According to the data of New York futures exchange in December 2009, the average cotton non-commercial bull position was 65082 hands, compared with 24645 hands in the same period in 2008, an increase of 40437 hands, an increase of 164.08%.

The massive entry of speculative capital has become an important factor affecting the price of cotton in the international market.

Compared with

First of all, at the planting level, according to the cotton planting intentions survey report released by China Cotton Institute in 2010, the cotton planting area predicted by China is still decreasing, which is reduced by about 4.9%, from 2009 to 75 million 460 thousand mu (cotton mill data) to 71 million 760 thousand acres.

Data from the US Department of agriculture show that global cotton production is not optimistic. According to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton production in 2009/10 is 22 million 360 thousand tons, the lowest level in nearly six years, 1 million 40 thousand tons lower than last year, and a 4.44% decline.

The end of the world cotton inventory is 11 million 260 thousand tons, the lowest level in nearly five years, compared with the previous year, inventories decreased by 2 million 10 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.67%.

Secondly, in the trade link, the cotton prices continue to rise, and more and more countries have planned or have reduced the export of cotton. This reduction in circulation will further push up cotton prices and provide opportunities for speculative capital.

Recently, from the news of India, a big cotton producing country, the Textile Manufacturers Association (SITMA) is carrying out lobbying work to urge the central government of India to ban exports of raw cotton and waste cotton.

They did so mainly to promote the decline of cotton yarn prices.

M S Mathivanan, the president of the association, has revealed to the outside world that the yarn price has risen by 40%-50% in 6 months as of March 2010, which has dealt a heavy blow to the textile industry in India.

They want the government to ban exports and curb cotton prices.

Meanwhile, the world's largest cotton exporter, the United States, recently released their cotton export data, according to the US Department of agriculture data, in 2009, the United States cotton exports decreased by 17.17% over the previous year.

Finally, at the demand level, the global demand for cotton is increasing, thanks to the recovery of the global economy, and the supply of cotton is in short supply.

According to the forecast of production and sale by the US Department of agriculture and the International Cotton Advisory Committee in March, there will be a gap of 2 million 930 thousand tons and 1 million 870 thousand tons of cotton production and demand in the world in 2009/10.

Before that, in 2008/09, the supply of global cotton was higher than that of actual consumption. According to the calculations of the two agencies, they were 578 thousand tons and 177 thousand tons respectively.

At the same time, domestic surveys also show strong demand for cotton.

Data from the national cotton market monitoring system "China cotton industry inventory survey report" showed that in early March, 86% of textile enterprises involved in the report survey were prepared to purchase raw materials, representing a 15 percentage point increase over the beginning of February.

An analysis of another related institution shows that in 2010, China needed 13 million tons of cotton spinning, and the gap between production and demand reached 6 million 200 thousand tons.

At present, one of the main driving forces of the overall rising cost of textile and garment industry in China is the continuous rise of cotton prices. Therefore, to control the rise of costs, we must control the huge fluctuation of cotton prices.

Based on this, our country threw three stores of national reserve cotton in 2009. This policy has restrained the rising trend of cotton prices for a period of time. However, for the reality of shortage, we must avoid the imbalance between supply and demand in order to really guarantee the stability of prices and allow speculators to take no chances.