The Global Economy Is Becoming More Volatile In The Post Crisis Era.

After entering crisis In the era of global economy, the "fundamental convergence effect" and "policy synergy effect" are gradually narrowing and disappearing. The more complex interest game will make the international financial market more volatile, and the situation of "monetary policy" will become more serious, and the possibility of exchange rate war will increase. We should focus on financial innovation, grasp the system construction and enhance finance. Assets Management ability and Finance The necessity of risk management is increasing.

Looking at the future of history, from the trend of data discrimination, the volatility, complexity and tortuosity of the global economy during the "12th Five-Year" period may be beyond market expectations. Therefore, I believe that the consensus of a series of "vision qualities" such as the smooth recovery of the global economy, the emerging market leading the world and the pluralistic development of the international monetary system may require more doubt and less blind faith.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the external environment we faced was the high quality recovery stage of the global economy entering the "faster recovery, moderate inflation and more balanced", which was manifested in three aspects: the relatively fast growth rate, the overall controllable inflation level and the potential improvement of the equilibrium level. According to IMF, the global economy is expected to achieve an average growth rate of 4.55% from 2011 to 2015. The faster growth comes from the self repair of the financial system after the crisis, the recovery and development of international trade, the reutilization of idle resources, the continuous rebound of market confidence and the concentrated appearance of the Zha Luo Wei Qi effect. In the next 5 years, the global inflation rate is estimated to be 4.458%, 3.441%, 3.006%, 2.897% and 2.894% respectively. Affected by the subprime crisis and sovereign debt crisis, the natural rate of balanced growth of the global economy has dropped by about one percentage point in the latter half of the past 5 years. The next 5 years will return to pre crisis levels and is expected to continue to improve. Its power comes from the activation of financial innovation, the steady progress of the rebalancing process, the improvement of resource allocation efficiency, the international movement of production factors, the catfish effect of emerging markets and the potential improvement of total factor productivity.

But it is worth noting that in the next 5 years, the structure of the global economy will show a structural feature of "suppressing first and then raising". This also indicates that the road to recovery of global economy is still reefs four volts, and the risk of recovery in the first half is even more prominent. Because the global economy is facing five major growth risks, such as sovereign debt crisis, structural imbalance, no job recovery, micro default and vulnerability. The countries of the euro zone, the United States, Japan and India are facing more severe financial difficulties in the "high debt and high deficit" areas. The urgency of solving the global imbalances in the developed and emerging markets is quite different, so the improvement of the global economic imbalance is a slow and gradual process. The exchange rate dispute and trade protection as the partner of the unbalanced risk will restrict the global economic recovery for a long time. The risk of unemployment will not only inhibit consumption, weaken the global economic recovery momentum, but also intensify competition for recovery interests and exacerbate the global policy game. In the United States, micro default risk is characterized by a high delinquency rate. In the first quarter of this year, the overall delinquency rate, the real estate delinquency rate and the consumer delinquency rate were 6.16%, 8.94% and 3.41%, respectively, higher than those in the past twenty years, which were 3.2%, 3.6% and 3.5%. In Europe, the European banking industry has a potential liquidity risk under the impact of the debt crisis. In the United States, vulnerability risks are mainly reflected in the fragility of the US global economic dominance and the vulnerability of the US dollar to the international monetary position. The global GDP share in the next 5 years is 19.382%, 19.109%, 18.808%, 18.479% and 18.127% respectively. The end of the year is down by 1.61 percentage points compared with the previous 5 years, and decreased by 6.653 percentage points compared with that of 30 years ago. In Europe, it shows the fragility of the system caused by the imbalance of the internal structure of the unified currency area. In emerging markets, it shows severe external imbalance and the growth pattern which is too dependent on resource endowment. Along with this, the risk sequential structure presents the former high and low level, and the risk level structure presents from microscopic bank to macro sovereignty, and then gradually transfers to the middle local sovereignty. The risk regional structure presents the three major risk structure characteristics of the "US Europe emerging market" core evolution.

In the post crisis era of global economy, the "fundamental convergence effect" and "policy synergy effect" in the era of crisis are gradually narrowing and vanishing. The natural differences in natural endowments, institutional characteristics, growth patterns, historical evolution and risk structure have made the global economy different from "harmony but difference". This "harmony but difference" is reflected in the three aspects of absolute growth level, relative growth level and timing characteristics of growth in developed and emerging markets. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of the emerging market in the next 5 years will be significantly higher than that of the developed market by 2.471%. This difference in absolute level means that the share of the emerging market in the global economy and the actual influence is expected to further improve in the next 6.58% years. While the average growth rate of developed markets is lower than the average of 2.59% over the past thirty years, it is significantly higher than the average of 1.1172% over the past 5 years. This shows that the core position of the developed market will not be fundamentally reversed. The growth rate of the developed market economy is high and low, and the difference of the timing structure between the low and high growth rate of the emerging market economy means that the alternation of the risk core will lead to the change of the relative strength of the global growth engine, and the wrestling of the developed and emerging markets will become more intense. In addition, the internal differences between developed and emerging markets are further expanding. The objective necessity of comprehensive utilization of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, industrial and structural adjustment policies to protect their own economic interests and enhance their competitiveness has been increasing.

The more complex global interest game will have two far-reaching implications for the international financial market: on the one hand, the potential need for countries to enhance their economic competitiveness has created a favorable market atmosphere for the sustainable development of global financial deepening. Using the data of BIS and Bloomberg, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has brought global financial assets and financial deepening indicators down from $788 trillion and 80 billion and 12.86 to 681 trillion and 670 billion US dollars and 10.84 in the middle of last year. With the crisis stabilizing and economic recovery, the two have recovered to $707 trillion and 20 billion and 11.24 at the end of last year, and are expected to continue to rise in the next 5 years and surpass the highest level before the crisis. On the other hand, a more complex global interest game will make the international financial market more volatile, and the situation of "monetary policy" will become more and more intensified, and the possibility of exchange rate war will increase. The international commodity market and financial asset prices will be difficult to avoid, and all kinds of financial risks will become more frequent worldwide. Two, the joint role of the impact means that all countries, especially the emerging market countries, will further increase the need for financial innovation and system construction, further improve the financial system, enrich the level of financial market, enhance the management capability of financial assets and the level of financial risk management.