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How Many Cards Are There In The Central Bank?

2014/5/29 17:19:00 27

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of Central Bank of China, will maintain a firm command with "< a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "> monetary policy < /a >, and will not introduce a large-scale stimulus policy in the short term, responding to the rising voice of the market. However, after the central bank directed lending to the State Bank to support shanty towns pformation, in May 22nd, Premier Li Keqiang put forward the directive of" reasonable and appropriate use of policy tools, timely and appropriate adjustment of fine-tuning ", and the disagreement on whether or not monetary policy will turn P is growing.

the liberal faction represented by Wang Zhihao, China's chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, believes that at present, China's many economic indicators indicate that the time to reduce the deposit reserve ratio is ripe, and it is necessary to relax policies in a wider range to achieve steady growth.

Opponents argue that the past experience has repeatedly proved that the use of large-scale stimulus policies to stimulate the economy is nothing short of saving the fire and paying the wages. The stepping stone of today will be a stumbling block for tomorrow.

The new normal of monetary policy should be from loose money to sound money, from loose volume to structural optimization.

despite the different channels of pfusion to the real economy, the goal of "how to solve the problem of financing difficulties and raising capital" is the same goal.

When Li Keqiang held a symposium on business and financial institutions in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, he pointed out: "finance is the blood and important support for economic development.

In view of the shortage of funds in the real economy reflected by enterprises, especially the financing difficulties and financing problems of small and micro enterprises, we should use appropriate policy tools to timely and appropriately adjust the fine-tuning, revitalize the stock of funds, optimize the financial structure, maintain reasonable growth in monetary and credit, promote financial reform, and create a good financial environment.

reporters learned from the insiders of the China Development Bank that the bank did get 300 billion of the refinancing as a shantytown Transformation Fund.

Then, what monetary policy tools do the central bank have for "reasonable use"?

money and money move away, /strong >

wind control under "trouble" loan shortage

"it thrive and thrive, and its death is sudden."

Wang Gang, a person in charge of a logistics park in Wuxi, told the "China Times" reporter that if it was not involved in the steel trade litigation, the logistics park would not be faced with the loan crisis.

Like P and most of the Zhouning people who are engaged in the steel trade, Wang Gang also thrive in the steel trade business.

"At that time, the profit of one ton of thread steel was between 1000 yuan and 1500 yuan. In the age of profiteering, Zhou Ning earned money while he earned money.

In the steel trade circle, an identity card of Zhou Ning's native place can lend hundreds of thousands or even millions.

After that, steel trade began to evolve from the original pure industrial operation to a scale and standardized financing mode.

To put it plainly, it is to take bank loans with steel trade.

despite Wang Gang's early departure, the logistics park after pformation is still facing the risk of being pumped out, because it is on the blacklist of the bank's steel trade joint guarantee mutual insurance.

"Zhouning people and even the Ningde chamber of Commerce in Wuxi are shielded from the banks."

Wang Gang said.

Shanghai is more than more than 100 kilometers away from P.

In the first quarter of this year, Pudong New Area courts accepted nearly half of the disputes on steel trade loans, which reached nearly 1051 last year.

Last year, the amount of steel trade involving banks in Pudong District of Shanghai was 19 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, loans involving steel trade amounted to 11 billion 400 million yuan.

Under "P", in order to guarantee the quality of assets, the assets that must be struck must be collected ahead of time.

Wuxi's joint-stock banks say that the so-called "big environment" refers to the "ten no loans" that circulated in this financial circle this year.

"Shanxi's coal mine Jiangsu's light, Shanghai's paper copper, Hebei's steel; central bank business ticket, private enterprise's warehouse, re export arbitrage Ningde's field; discount housing dream yesterday, commercial real estate City twilight."

In other words, coal, photovoltaic, copper financing, steel, unsecured bills, steel trade, commercial real estate and mortgage loans are already the sunset industry.

the joint-stock banks have said that since the beginning of 2014, the phenomenon of "high price" has appeared in bank credit, and the interest rate of loans has increased significantly. In many fields such as small and medium-sized enterprises, traditional excess capacity industries, first suite purchase and real estate development, the difficulties of financing have emerged.

in the first quarter of this year, the steel industry appeared the first loss of the whole industry since the beginning of the new century.

China Steel Association data show that key statistics enterprises realized sales revenue of 868 billion 800 million yuan, and realized profits of -23 billion yuan, from profit to loss, with a total loss of 45%, an increase of 14% over the same period last year.

in the view of the joint-stock banks, the phenomenon of future evasion, cautious lending, credit crunch and loan withdrawal will continue to erupt.

The slump of credit demand this year coincided with the view of the market. In April, the scale of social financing was 1 trillion and 550 billion yuan, 209 billion 100 million yuan less than that of the same period last year, of which RMB loans increased by 17 billion 600 million yuan less than the same period last year.

This phenomenon has not changed since the entry of P into May.

According to media reports, as of May 25th, the four major banks in the industry, agriculture, China and construction increased RMB loans by only 130 billion yuan.

under the impact of interest rate marketization, financial disintermediation and the balance of treasure class monetary fund, the debt cost of banks has increased. How to solve the financing difficulties and financing the real economy shortage has become a topic of concern to all sides of the bank, enterprise and government.

from "Keqiang economics" > /strong > /p >

to the "new normal" of China's economy /p >

It is a question that P will not drop.

A debate on whether to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks is being launched among economists.

"we can not leverage a growing economy."

Wang Zhihao, the chief economist of China Standard Chartered Bank, has recently hit the nerve of the market and detonated expectations.

he compared the data in 2008, 2012 and the current series, including industrial added value, electricity generation, credit growth, interbank liquidity and real interest rate levels above the scale, and all of them met the demand for reduction.

"it is undeniable that if we deal with the downward trend of the economy in accordance with the traditional Keynes's macroeconomic regulation and control mode, the central bank should really reduce the deposit reserve ratio at this time, and stimulate the aggregate demand through the total easing."

In May 28th, on the forum of Sina Financial first public company selection, Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that under the "new normal" framework, the government's macro management ideas have undergone major changes.

In the future, the probability of taking the old road and stimulating the total amount is not high.

> a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Wang Zhihao < /a > history is not always a good reference.

"Obviously, the Li Keqiang administration's response to the economic slowdown is different. In the past, general secretary Xi Jinping also stated that economic growth should be adapted to the" new normal ".

Senior leaders stick to the bottom line and push ahead with reform.

however, deleveraging can not be achieved through too loose monetary policy, nor can it be accompanied by high real interest rates and low nominal GDP growth rates (and is still slowing down).

Wang Zhihao believes that monetary policy easing has been quietly implemented without the release of any official signals.

Wang Jingwen, a researcher at the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank of China, looks at the possibility of a full relaxation of the future policy.

The reason is that the flood irrigation policy is relaxed. Although the short-term growth can stimulate growth, the sequelae such as overcapacity and environmental degradation are more obvious. Secondly, the total stimulus policy will not enhance the support for small and micro enterprises, but will further worsen the economic structure. Finally, structural directional easing policy will not only contribute to steady growth, but also help adjust the structure.

The policy tool of "P > < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > currency < /a > guess: .

strong > gross loose to structural optimization

there are indications that the central bank has been eating through the world through the "precision mine clearance" in the open market, and there are two working days to enter the June.

Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) data show that as of May 27th, the trend of interest rates across the whole month was stable. The interest rates across half a month, 7 days, 2 weeks and 1 months were maintained at 2.5%, 3.4%, 3.9%, and 4.2% respectively.

however, there is still one month away from the "mid-term exam", and the central bank has made arrangements ahead of schedule.

In the past two weeks, the open market has been running 44 billion and 120 billion continuously, and last week set a new high of net weekly turnover.

this week, the market volume of the open market has dropped to 50 billion, and the demand for funds has been strong before and after the long holiday.

On the 26 day, the central bank announcement will be jointly launched by the Ministry of Finance on the 29 day for 9 months, and the 40 billion treasury cash will be tendering and tendering to ease the funds at the two points of the year and the end of the year.

27, the central bank's repo contracted to 20 billion yuan, a new low in the year.

reviewing the past one and a half years, since the three quarter of 2012, the central bank has basically abandoned the direct total reserve ratio and deposit interest rate regulation, instead of frequent open market operations, and fine-tuning the monetary policy.

Less than P, especially since the launch of the standing loan facility (SLF) and the short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO) in early 2013, it has been more sophisticated and skillful to inject liquidity into the market through directional and reverse repurchases, such as collocation, renewal of central bank bills and tendering of Financial deposits.

"the change of policy tools will ultimately serve the policy objectives of economic restructuring and pformation and upgrading. The non-standard scale will shrink. The liquidity of financial institutions precipitated between banks will be turned over to the central bank through active repurchase."

Guan Qingyou believes that the central bank can make use of this "money bag", through directional easing, support re lending to promote credit structure optimization, encourage and guide financial institutions to deploy more credit resources to key areas and weak links such as "three rural", small and micro enterprises, modern service industry, and so on, so as to achieve the goal of "total stability and structural optimization".

in fact, the central bank has been promoting directional easing to support related fields, after the central bank directed the county agricultural business bank and the agricultural cooperative bank to reduce the policy direction, enhance the financial strength of the rural financial institutions at the county level and support the ability of "three rural" development.

In addition to P, the 300 billion yuan refinancing of CDB may indicate a meaningful change in monetary policy.

In fact, in the 80 and 90s of last century, refinancing was once a routine tool of the central bank, and also the main channel for the creation of basic money.

But since then, with the rapid expansion of the central bank's foreign exchange assets, its role has been given to foreign exchange.

Since the beginning of this year, foreign exchange has gradually shrunk, which has provided conditions for this tool to recreate rivers and lakes.

Agricultural Bank said that from this perspective, it is expected that the central bank will resort to the policy tool of refinancing.

in fact, in the fourth quarter of last year's monetary policy report, the central bank has adjusted the reclassification of loans from the former 3 categories to 4 categories. The original liquidity reloan will be further subdivided into liquidity reloan and credit policy support refinancing, and financial stability reloan and special policy reloan classification will remain unchanged.

"This makes the" reloan "have the function of adjusting the structure.

Wang Jingwen commented.

for the possible loose monetary policy, Goldman Sachs believes that it may be carried out by relaxing credit lines, loan to deposit ratio assessment, open market operations, refinancing, reducing the deposit rate and the benchmark interest rate, but the possibility of reducing the accuracy is relatively small, because it will send a high-profile signal of monetary easing and difficult to integrate with the government's idea of "promoting growth through reform".