The Traditional Slack Season Of The Domestic Textile Industry Is Coming. The Slack Season Of Cotton Is Not Weak

Domestic in July spin The traditional slack season of the industry is coming, and the spot resources in 2015/16 are exhausted, which should be light market By Zheng Mian Futures National reserve cotton Due to the impact of the sharp rise in the auction transaction price, the domestic market has been on the rise recently, and the mainstream price of cotton has been continuously refreshed. Especially under the support of the gap of high-quality cotton, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton has exceeded 15000 yuan/ton, up 1500 yuan/ton from the beginning of May, up 12%. Although the supply and demand fundamentals of the market have not improved significantly, the high turnover rate of the national reserve, the strong increase of cotton season and the supply gap in the new year have all become the "drivers" of the market.

From the low point of Zheng Mian in February, which broke 10000 yuan, to the eight day four limit up in April, the depressed cotton market was pushed to the forefront again. The sharp increase of Zheng Mian played an obvious role in the "push" of the spot market. The "slow bull market" of cotton in the first half of June was obvious. Although the spot quantity was small and the turnover of the national reserve was high, the overall situation was strong and profitable, but the cotton price in the off-season just needed lacked the basis to pull up, Under the game of bulls and bears, the volatility of cotton prices at the end of June deepened. Especially in July, the expectation of RMB depreciation, the "hungry marketing" of the state's dumping and storage policy, weather factors, etc. were flooded with all kinds of profitable topics, forming a great contrast with the flat demand of the spot market.

From the perspective of the national reserve cotton, since the launch of the national reserve cotton rotation on May 3, the market has maintained a high turnover rate. In May, the national reserve cotton rotation maintained a high turnover rate of over 97%, and by the end of May, 300000 tons of imported cotton had been put into production. Since June, all the national reserve cotton has been put into production, and the turnover and transaction price of the national reserve cotton have also fluctuated slightly, but the turnover is still at a high level. As of July 11, 2015/2016, the cumulative planned delivery of reserve cotton was 1.2404 million tons, and the cumulative delivery turnover was 1.214 million tons, with a turnover rate of 97.87%, of which the cumulative turnover of domestic cotton was 917700 tons, with a turnover rate of 97.78%; The total turnover of imported cotton was 296300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%, an average length of 28.3mm, an average price of 12479 yuan/ton, and a total of 776 deals.

According to the calculation of the rotation quantity, the export volume of the national reserve cotton at the initial stage of the launch can basically guarantee the level of 30000 tons per day. However, with the restriction of the ex warehouse, public inspection and other issues, the export volume has been reduced to about 24000 tons per day. From the perspective of the sales base price of national reserve cotton, only two weeks later, the base price slightly decreased. At present (the eleventh week), the sales base price of national reserve cotton has risen to 13053 yuan/ton, 1032 yuan/ton different from the price in the first week of the launch, and the premium price of high-quality resources is obvious, the maximum premium is 4400 yuan/ton, and the actual average transaction price hit 14143 yuan/ton.

In the current traditional off-season, the slow sales of capital and finished product inventory of terminal textile enterprises have restricted the competitive bidding of textile enterprises. At present, the participation of traders is relatively high, and textile enterprises maintain the principle of purchasing as needed. According to the author, with the price of raw materials rising, the profit value of textile enterprises showed a significant decline. A 50000 spindle mill in Henan reported that the spot price of cotton in 2015/16 increased even more dramatically due to the bidding price increase and high transaction price of state-owned reserve cotton C32S and C40S yarns not only have no profit, but also have a loss of 500-1000 yuan/ton. In order to complete the order, textile enterprises can only increase the price to compete for the state-owned cotton reserve from the traders. If the inventory is low, textile enterprises follow the trend of inventory increase, but the inventory of slightly high cotton enterprises mostly focus on the digestion of inventory, which is still a little "powerless" to pull up cotton yarn. The short-term terminal market is more wait-and-see sentiment towards high cotton prices.

In July, the sales of new cotton in 2015-16 in China basically ended, and the cotton storage abroad in turn became the only channel for the supply of domestic cotton resources. It is estimated that a large number of new Xinjiang cotton flowers will generally reach the mainland market in about November, while the dumping and storage will basically end at the end of August, with a 2-3 month gap between them. Textile enterprises are preparing corresponding stocks at the current dumping and storage stage, The current dumping of reserves is not enough as a whole relative to the demand, and the early traders are running low inventory, and there is also a demand for replenishment operations when the market may improve, so the overall cotton market continues to be good in the near future. It is expected that in the short term, the auction heat of reserve cotton in the market will not decrease, the turnover price of rotation will continue to operate at a high level, and the basis for the high level operation of lint spot will remain. We will continue to pay close attention to the rotation of reserve cotton. Based on the supply gap caused by the decline of planting area and weather factors in the new year, the pattern of high opening in the new year is obvious, and it is expected that the new cotton will fluctuate between 14500-15000 yuan/ton.